News4 recently reported you need roughly $300,000 in household income to buy the median home in Northern Virginia. That number understandably freaked a lot of people out. It's also — technically — accurate for a very specific kind of home purchase.
But it's not the whole story. You don't have to buy the median home. And what you can afford depends on far more than what a lender pre-approves you for.
Let me walk you through how affordability actually works in the DMV, and how I help clients figure out what to actually spend.
The quick rule.
The traditional guideline: your total housing payment (mortgage + taxes + insurance + HOA) should be no more than 28% of your gross monthly income. Total debt (housing + car + student loans + credit cards) shouldn't exceed 36%.
At current interest rates (around 6–7%), that shakes out to something like this:
| Household income | Max monthly payment (28%) | Approx. home price (10% down) |
|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | $2,333 | ~$350K |
| $150,000 | $3,500 | ~$525K |
| $200,000 | $4,666 | ~$700K |
| $300,000 | $7,000 | ~$1M |
| $400,000 | $9,333 | ~$1.4M |
These are rough estimates using current rates. Actual max varies by your down payment, credit score, other debts, property taxes, and HOA fees.
What the calculator misses.
The problem with online affordability calculators is they treat you as a stack of ratios. They don't account for the reality of your actual life. Here are the questions I ask that change the number:
Do you have kids or want kids soon? Childcare in the DMV runs $2,000–$3,000 per month per child. If daycare is coming, plan for it.
How's your job security? Federal employment in Virginia dropped 11% in 2025, with Arlington and Alexandria seeing 14% federal civilian job cuts. If your job could go tomorrow, you want more cushion than a lender thinks you need.
What are your other financial goals? Retirement contributions, kids' college, emergency fund, travel — the max payment on paper means zero contribution to any of those.
Do you actually want to spend that much on housing? The lender approves you for $700K. You'd be more comfortable — and more free — at $550K. That's fine. Being house poor is a real thing and it makes people miserable.
"The lender tells you the maximum you can borrow. The maximum is almost never the amount you should actually spend."
The hidden costs nobody talks about.
The mortgage is the number everyone focuses on. But your true monthly cost includes:
Property tax: Averaging 0.85% (DC) to 1.09% (Maryland) of home value annually. On a $600K home, that's $425–$545/month baked into your payment.
Homeowners insurance: $100–$200/month in the DMV. More on older or waterfront homes.
HOA or condo fees: Ranges from $0 to $800+/month depending on the property. Old Town condos are often $400–$700. Some townhome communities are $200–$400.
Utilities: Water, gas, electric, trash — often $200–$400/month for a house, less for a condo.
Maintenance: Budget 1–2% of home value per year. On a $600K home, that's $500–$1,000/month averaged out. Some years less, some years (roof, HVAC, water heater) way more.
Car costs — Virginia only: Personal property tax on your vehicles, typically $500–$2,000 per household per year.
How to actually figure this out.
Here's what I'd tell you if we were sitting down for coffee:
Step 1: Do the "would you regret it" test. Pick a home price. Ask yourself: "If I bought this and my income dropped 20% next year, would I regret it?" If yes, that's too much. If no, you're probably in a comfortable zone.
Step 2: Get pre-approved from two lenders. Not to find your max — to find your rate. Even a 0.25% difference on a $500K loan is real money over 30 years.
Step 3: Talk to your accountant. Mortgage interest and property tax deductions can meaningfully change your effective monthly cost, especially at higher income levels.
Step 4: Stress-test the number. Take the monthly payment you're considering. Live like you're already paying it for 3 months — put the extra money aside like it's the mortgage. If it's comfortable, that's a green light. If it's stressful, that's your answer.
What I tell buyers.
Buy the home that fits the life you actually want to live — not the home your lender says you can afford. The people who feel best about their purchases 5 years later are the ones who bought a little less house than they could technically qualify for. The people who feel worst are the ones who stretched.
There is no shame in choosing a smaller first home, a further-out ZIP code, or a longer commute if it means breathing room in your monthly budget. A house you can comfortably afford is worth more than a house that impresses your friends.
Want a real number for a real home?
If you're serious about buying, let's talk — I can help you figure out what's realistic in your target neighborhoods, connect you with a great lender, and start narrowing down what your actual budget looks like.